Wednesday, June 07, 2006
Science Establishment Lacking in Imagination
After thinking about the Global Warming Conference for a few days, it occurs to me that with a couple of exceptions, most of the speakers that day, and most of those who are getting national attention (AlGore and others) can only imagine one scenario. That scenario is: earth is getting warmer because of CO2 concentration in atmosphere caused by man. The CO2 will continue to increase because of man, and thus the warming trend will continue. There may be a tipping point where the positive feedback will intensify this warming. In any case, the eventual outcome of this certain path is a long list of calamities for mankind, other species, and the planet itself. Lets examine alternative possibilities one-by-one.
1. The earth has been getting warmer, but might not. The change could happen as a result of lack of understanding of at least:
A. Solar Activity
B. Cloud Activity
C. Plant Activity
D. Ocean Activity
E. Healing effect of three atmospheres
2. Earth might be getting warmer not because of CO2, but because of:
A. Solar Activity
B. Ocean Activity
C. Normal historic trends not fully understood
3. CO2 increases (noted in earlier natural cycles before man and before industrial revolution) might have nothing to do with man, or only partially to do with man, and may reverse as they have in past historical cycles. Most scientists on the panel felt these increases were only partially due to man, if at all, and therefore they might continue no matter what we do or don't do.
4. There may be a tipping point where increases in CO2 concentrations and or warming might result in reversal of one or both. There may not be a tipping point.
5. Recent and ancient increases in the average planet temperature have actually been beneficial to the planet. Therefore, one or two additional degrees of warming might actually be a good thing, on balance.
6. There may be some calamities, many calamities, or none. Maybe there will even be fewer calamities if the temperature goes up. It seems odd to me that the only vision of the future that these scientists and pundits can imagine are horrific.
7. If we interfere with the climate with the intent of decreasing warming, we might exacerbate a natural trend toward cooling that we were not able to discern. Global cooling of 3 or 4 degrees might be much more troubling than a few degrees of warming. Personally, I've lived in St. Louis, and I've lived in So Cal. I prefer So Cal.
So, this is a call to global warming scare mongers. Open your mind and let a little light in. Hit your alpha zone and contemplate alternatives to the popular notion among the cloistered. I even suspect that there are another dozen or 100 alternative scenarios that I couldn't think of in this 15 minute post.
UPDATE: Here is a well written and researched article that I ran across just after finishing this post. Supports this position quite nicely.